在2022年该小组会议ll Conference & 87th IREPAS Meeting held in Monaco on October 9-11, Murat Cebecioğlu from Turkish steel producer ICDAS, and chairman of IREPAS, informed the participants about the situation in certain countries, stating that many countries have been negatively affected by inflation rates, energy prices and declining steel production, while the US market remains stable, with its imports going down, an increase expected in its rebar consumption amid new infrastructure projects, and more capacity coming from domestic micro mills. He also noted that, in some other countries such as Qatar and Kuwait, the situation seems a bit better with some infrastructure projects planned.
Commenting on declining steel production, Mr. Cebecioğlu said production cuts are already seen which will probably balance the drop in demand, though huge uncertainty remains for the next few quarters, also fuelled by some political issues, adding that doing business will be extremely difficult not only in the EU, but elsewhere also. He went on to say that for Turkey energy costs are the main issue causing a reduction in production and uncertainty is not helping mills to make long-term plans. Regarding Turkey’s sales prospects, “Right after the start of the war Turkey was able to sell huge quantities to the EU, but now the EU has found other sources that are not included in its quota system,” the committee chairman noted. He underlined that, today with Asian countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia selling to the EU with CFR prices which are lower than Turkey’s FOB prices, “there is no way Turkey can compete”.
Answering a question regarding the disturbance caused in the markets by Russian supplies, Mr. Cebecioğlu commented that, from 2024, Russian slab and billet will be banned in the EU and Canada’s announcement that it will sanction any imported steel produced from Russian material causes hesitation to use Russian material. He added that Russian exports are disturbing prices in many markets and producers globally are suffering, with only limited markets remaining for sales opportunities.
At the end of the panel discussion, regarding the carbon emissions footprint in the steel industry, the IREPAS chairman said that the mills may be forced to put decarbonization plans aside for a while amid the drastic increase in energy prices, expecting possible short delays on the way to green steel inEurope. However, there were different opinions among the audience. “The mechanism [of banning or restricting] of “dirty” steel inEuropeis already there,” Alexander Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group, said during the panel discussion. He stated that no date has been set but he believes that the carbon border adjustment mechanism will be in place by 2030. Some other market participants said they believed that the deadline is even closer, by 2025. This may significantly change the structure of steel imports toEuropeand make mills outside of the region willing to actively implement carbon emissions reduction measures, they indicated.